Once you’ve been bitten by the offshore fishing bug you’ll lie awake in bed at night, thinking about how you can make the next trip happen. You’ll sit in your office chair staring slack-jawed at the computer, daydreaming about thrashing tuna and jumping billfish. You’ll spend your spare time lurking in the garage, making up leaders while mental visions of sinking the gaff into pelagic beasts run in a loop. There’s only one cure: leave the inlet at daybreak.
Going offshore on your own boat is an adventure that leaves you with an indelible desire to go again, and again, and again. Getting out on each and every possible fishing day seems to take on an overwhelming importance, but there are only so many days in the season and your work schedule probably limits just when you can pull the trigger. Most limiting of all, however, is the weather. If you decide to run offshore when the conditions are wrong you risk having a miserable day, breaking stuff, or even endangering yourself or your crew. But there will also be days when the weather report looks bad, you cancel the trip, and later hear that the boats that went out enjoyed sunny skies and screaming drags. Every time the opportunity to go offshore presents itself you have to make a go/no-go call—one of the toughest decisions any recreational angler captaining his or her own boat has to make.
Critical Offshore Weather Factors
As a matter of safety it’s up to you to know your boat and its limitations. This isn’t determined by size alone but also by construction quality, hull design, age, equipping, and reliability of the systems. There’s no one-size-fits-all size limit for this or that sea state, and no blanket statements apply. This is a matter of judgement, pure and simple, and the truth of the matter is that if you don’t feel confident making the judgement call, you probably shouldn’t be running the boat offshore.
Then, there’s the matter of people’s limitations. The term “fishable” means different things to different people, and all of us have our own personal level of punishment we’re willing to endure. So, the first thing you need to consider is just what level this is for both you and your crew. Note to young guys: pay special attention to the “and your crew” part. Many anglers in their 20s and 30s have no problem bashing through three and four footers at 30 mph for hours on end, but the very same experience might put old Uncle Billy in a wheelchair for a week. If things look at all iffy, before making a go/no-go call survey the crew to get a feeling for their seagoing torture threshold and take it into consideration.
Next, consider your destination. If the only action is 70 miles from the inlet and it’s going to be all 70 or bust, there’s nothing wrong with applying a bit more pessimism than you might if there were fish on the inshore lumps 20 or 30 miles out. Shorter runs mean less punishment in general, and they also mean you can get home quicker if you need to abort.
Finally, time of year and even day of the week matters, too. If it’s a weekend day in the middle of the summer you can be certain other boats will be out there in case you need assistance. On a Wednesday during the off-season, on the other hand, it can be a very lonely ocean.
Reading the Offshore Weather Forecast
All of these factors naturally have to be matched up with the weather forecast. If they’re calling for winds of 30-plus nobody in their right mind will say “let’s go for it” regardless of the boat, the crew, the destination, and the timing. At the other end of the spectrum there are light and variable winds. It’s the in-between part we struggle with. And remember, all forecasts are not created equal—if you generally go by the forecast you see on The Golf Channel, well, then you really should go golfing instead of offshore fishing. Wise captains will check at least two offshore weather forecasts and if there’s any disagreement in them, check a third and see who agrees. Very wise captains will be constantly monitoring the weather via SiriuxXM, looking at both the latest marine zone forecasts and the current weather data including wind speeds, wave heights, and buoy data. On trips when the go/no-go call is a close one they’ll reserve judgement until just before departure and look at the very latest data streaming in on the MFD.
Generally speaking, when there are forecasts for winds under 10 knots it’s likely to be a nice day, 10 to 15 is doable for most of us but could get uncomfortable, 15 to 20 is likely to be uncomfortable but could get ugly, and anything over 20 is likely to range from miserable to dangerous unless you’re on a very big boat crewed by professionals. The tough part, of course, is that forecasts don’t always match up with reality. Bearing in mind that there will be exceptions, generally speaking, the cautious among us will allow for five knots of leeway in either direction.
You also need to consider which direction the wind is blowing from. In the Mid-Atlantic region anything with east in it will likely be bumpier than anything with west in it. The worst of all is usually a northeast wind, hence the old saying that “NE” stands for “never, ever.” Of course, this is a consideration not a rule; two knots of wind out of the northeast is essentially irrelevant, but 12 knots out of the northeast could create a sea state that feels more like one generated by 15 or 16 knots out of the northwest.
Wave Height vs. Wave Period
Wave size and frequency should also play into your decision making, and wave period makes a huge difference. As a rule, the shorter the period is the bumpier the ride will be and the tougher it is to remain standing when you get where you’re going.
Long-period waves are generally swells, and a four-foot swell at a 12-second period makes for very comfortable conditions. But short-period waves are mostly wind-driven, and four-foot waves at a five-second period will be very bumpy. Some people like to go by a “two times” rule and feel that if the period is at least double the wave height, all will be well. Very conservative people might look for a period that’s triple the height.
Stormy Weather
One variable we haven’t talked about here is storms. Obviously they throw a kink into the entire go/no-go question, but have to be considered separately from the prevailing conditions as the percentage-chance of encountering a storm is a different—and equally undependable—forecast. Each mariner’s risk tolerance will vary, but remember that a single thunderstorm can turn a beautiful day on the ocean into a raging maelstrom.
We use our phones to monitor storm prevalence, direction, and intensity when we’re on or close to land, but of course that’s not possible in the offshore realm. The best way to see at a glance where storms are and where they’re headed once you’re offshore is to arm yourself with SiriusXM Marine and get that intel beamed directly to your chartplotter from space. We thank SiriusXM for supporting FishTalk and this offshore series, and are beyond happy to help spread the word about their marine weather service. Having used it ourselves to effectively ID the path of storms and dodge them while offshore, we’re believers in this system. Check out the free trial, and the first time those thunderstorms pop up we bet you’ll become a believer, too.
So, what does all this boil down to? There’s no easy answer. Every day is different, every boat is different, and every crew is different. The bottom line is simply that you, the captain, have to make a judgement call—and when it’s looking iffy, that will be a tough call to make.
Well, nobody said offshore fishing was easy. But once you’ve been bitten by that bug…